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BREAKING FRIDAY AM 2-27-26
The war between the US/Israel and Iran could begin within the next 48 hours.
The US has called on its citizens to leave Israel and Iran.
The US has called on its citizens to leave Israel today with the last flights.
Today, hundreds of reserve IDF soldiers were called up for service to the air defense command.
U.S. Embassy staff are being evacuated from Baghdad, Iraq
Major Israeli cities, starting with Be’er Shebaa, have opened public bomb shelters
The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its strike group have arrived off the coast of Israel
A huge amount of U.S. Air Force assets are currently stationed at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel, a supposedly ‘civilian’ airport
The US is mobilizing large numbers of kamikaze drones
“I write books to educate myself"
Paul Johnson (1928–2023), the British historian and author, wrote more than 50 books over his lifetime.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297.1.0.pdf
Mishandling national defense information. Very serious.
There are three ways the outlook could play out.
1. The polls and analysts are largely accurate.
a. House: 233 D - 202 R; Senate: 52 D - 48 R
b. Recent polling errors have been greater in the presidential elections while midterms - on the whole - have been more accurate (Silver Bulletin). If largely accurate, Democrats would win a majority of similar size to the 2018 and 2006 midterms and gain a narrow Senate majority.
2. The polls and analysts underestimate Republicans by a normal polling error.
a. House: 221 D - 214 R; Senate: 51 R - 49 D
b. Some of the biggest polling errors this century occurred in reliably red states and districts that underestimate Republican support (The Economist). Given where the competitive races are located this year, another underestimation would be enough to keep Republicans in control of the Senate and to have Democratic House margins in the single digits.
3. The polls and analysts underestimate Democrats by a normal polling error.
a. House: 238 D - 197 R;...
