"The founding anti-Federalists feared [Presidential power was] precarious in the hands of a centralized, nationalized government, where “swayed by elites” they would devolve into “wars for conquest, not defense”, preferring this power devolve even further to the local and state level, enforced through the prohibition on standing armies, quartering armies in the community, and the power of arms in the hands of the people through the Militia and the Second Amendment of the Bill of Rights.
"They especially worried about the capacity of a single man in the Presidency usurping the powers of the Commander in Chief to make war without even Congressional blessing. The Federalists promised the President could never do that without Congressional pre-approval, with John Jay promising this check effectively muted the fear of abuse of executive power.
"Our founding generation abhorred emperors, despised empire, and feared any crossing of the Rubicon by a small elite or single person to kill a Republic for a would-be empire. Our founders denied the right to make conquest a legitimate objective of the national government. Why? Because they saw how adventurous, avaricious empires killed republics quicker than anything could. Don’t need to be a Star Wars fan to understand that; just need a Cliffs Notes history of the world. "
-- Robert Barnes
“I write books to educate myself"
Paul Johnson (1928–2023), the British historian and author, wrote more than 50 books over his lifetime.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297.1.0.pdf
Mishandling national defense information. Very serious.
There are three ways the outlook could play out.
1. The polls and analysts are largely accurate.
a. House: 233 D - 202 R; Senate: 52 D - 48 R
b. Recent polling errors have been greater in the presidential elections while midterms - on the whole - have been more accurate (Silver Bulletin). If largely accurate, Democrats would win a majority of similar size to the 2018 and 2006 midterms and gain a narrow Senate majority.
2. The polls and analysts underestimate Republicans by a normal polling error.
a. House: 221 D - 214 R; Senate: 51 R - 49 D
b. Some of the biggest polling errors this century occurred in reliably red states and districts that underestimate Republican support (The Economist). Given where the competitive races are located this year, another underestimation would be enough to keep Republicans in control of the Senate and to have Democratic House margins in the single digits.
3. The polls and analysts underestimate Democrats by a normal polling error.
a. House: 238 D - 197 R;...