Starts today.
"According to a survey by JL Partners, roughly 765,000 New Yorkers—say they’re preparing to leave because of Mamdani’s election. Another 25%, or around 2.1 million, are considering it. Among high earners—those making over $250,000 a year—7% say they’re definitely fleeing.
"Why wouldn’t they? Mamdani has made it clear he views them as piggy banks. His entire platform is built on extracting their wealth and redistributing it. When you explicitly declare war on a segment of your population, that segment leaves.
"And those are the people funding everything. They’re the tax base. When they leave, revenue collapses—making it difficult, if not impossible, to fund the bloated social(ist) programs Mamdani promised. Then what? More taxes on whoever’s left. Which drives out more people. Which shrinks revenue even further.
"It’s a doom loop—and, again, entirely predictable.
"The end result is that New York’s going to end up looking a lot like the countries Mamdani’s diverse, multicultural coalition fled from. Not because immigrants are incapable of prosperity, but because the very policies needed to hold his coalition together are the same ones that created dysfunction in those countries to begin with."
Lau Vegys
“I write books to educate myself"
Paul Johnson (1928–2023), the British historian and author, wrote more than 50 books over his lifetime.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297.1.0.pdf
Mishandling national defense information. Very serious.
There are three ways the outlook could play out.
1. The polls and analysts are largely accurate.
a. House: 233 D - 202 R; Senate: 52 D - 48 R
b. Recent polling errors have been greater in the presidential elections while midterms - on the whole - have been more accurate (Silver Bulletin). If largely accurate, Democrats would win a majority of similar size to the 2018 and 2006 midterms and gain a narrow Senate majority.
2. The polls and analysts underestimate Republicans by a normal polling error.
a. House: 221 D - 214 R; Senate: 51 R - 49 D
b. Some of the biggest polling errors this century occurred in reliably red states and districts that underestimate Republican support (The Economist). Given where the competitive races are located this year, another underestimation would be enough to keep Republicans in control of the Senate and to have Democratic House margins in the single digits.
3. The polls and analysts underestimate Democrats by a normal polling error.
a. House: 238 D - 197 R;...