We explore real-life reformation here in this informed, online community.
1. Practice of culling (mass destruction of entire healthy flocks) when a PCR test is found positive to “eradicate” the virus is futile and may work to constrain the food supply. The current strain H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4.b is not thus far causing necropsy or radiographic confirmed fatal pneumonia in birds or mammals.
2. H5N1 host range expansion into migratory birds and mammals likely occurred as a result of gain-of-function serial passage research and a lab leak.
3. Increased transmissibility of H5N1 has a tradeoff of decreased virulence. Using legacy human mortality rates from cases in Southeast Asia is not appropriate. The US has never had a fatal human case of bird flu.
4. Fear-mongering promulgated by the Bio-Pharmaceutical Complex is designed to promote mass vaccination of animals and humans with lucrative pre-purchased contracts to the vaccine manufacturers and their NGO backers. Mass vaccination into a highly prevalent pandemic since it promotes resistant strains of the virus in the vaccinated.
5. If human-to-human spread occurs in the future as expected by many, it will be the product of gain-of-function research that has gone on for years with the goal of creating harm to human populations.
6. Be prepared with early prevention and treatment strategies on hand.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297.1.0.pdf
Mishandling national defense information. Very serious.
There are three ways the outlook could play out.
1. The polls and analysts are largely accurate.
a. House: 233 D - 202 R; Senate: 52 D - 48 R
b. Recent polling errors have been greater in the presidential elections while midterms - on the whole - have been more accurate (Silver Bulletin). If largely accurate, Democrats would win a majority of similar size to the 2018 and 2006 midterms and gain a narrow Senate majority.
2. The polls and analysts underestimate Republicans by a normal polling error.
a. House: 221 D - 214 R; Senate: 51 R - 49 D
b. Some of the biggest polling errors this century occurred in reliably red states and districts that underestimate Republican support (The Economist). Given where the competitive races are located this year, another underestimation would be enough to keep Republicans in control of the Senate and to have Democratic House margins in the single digits.
3. The polls and analysts underestimate Democrats by a normal polling error.
a. House: 238 D - 197 R;...
Over the years, I have become convinced sunlight is one of the most essential nutrients for the body. Unfortunately, since no one has a financial interest in promoting sunlight (and it hence has no lobbyists), almost everything we hear instead focuses on why it’s terrible for us. For example, dermatology transformed itself from one of the least desirable specialties in medicine into one of the highest paying ones by rebranding its members as cancer fighters, which required scaring everyone senseless about the sun (while omitting that a lack of sunlight is what causes fatal skin cancers). Despite the billions now spent each year on skin cancer, the total death rate from it remains almost entirely unchanged (all of which is discussed here).
A similar story has played out with the light inside our homes. In 2022, the federal government effectively banned the incandescent bulb on the grounds most of its output is “wasted” as infrared, even though a rapidly growing body of research ...
