But they failed every time. Armed Hungarian families stood in the way on several occasions from the early 1500s. And defensive Christian armies ended the jihad assaults in 1683. Until Vienna opened her borders to illegal immigration in the 21st century. Update from September, 2024:
"In Vienna, a quondam capital of Western culture, 70% of all the students in the public schools are Muslim, and their percentage increases with each year that passes. This has caused all sorts of problems, with Muslims harassing girls who do not follow a strict dress code, to complaining about everything from non-halal meats served in the school cantines, to the absence of a Muslim prayer room, to certain subjects that they are unwilling to study. Then there is the terrific expense of additional classes in German language training and violent threats made by Muslim students to teachers, staff, and classmates. Teachers, unable to stand the strain, are leaving their Viennese posts in droves."
-- Hugh Fitzgerald
The narrow strait is the most important chokepoint for the world's oil supply. Some 21 million barrels — or $1.2 billion worth of oil — pass through the strait every day.
Will a closed Strait hurt Iran? In terms of international oil sales, yes, but in terms of daily life, no. Iran pumps 3.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. The situation at this hour:
Most people hear “Hormuz” and think gas prices.
That’s part of it. But it’s bigger. It’s a central artery for global trade, and we talked about how disruptions hit second-order systems fast, including inputs tied to food production (field work and fertilizers), trucking, and downstream shocks in everything from shipping insurance to medicine, medical supplies, medical treatments and regional stability.
This is why the “we’re energy independent so it doesn’t matter” line is naive. In a globally priced commodity world, you don’t get to opt out.