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by Constitutional attorney Robert Barnes
Trump’s Next Big Hurdle is Himself
Trump’s virtue and vice reflects two sides of the same coin: his stubborn independence from outside voices and abundant self-confidence. On the good side, it makes him immune from elite critics, orthodox thinking, establishment mindset, and institutional narratives. On the difficult side, it makes him unlikely to acknowledge errors, reverse course when needed, or look beyond his own horizon. A few examples of this.
During his response to the State of the Union, he wanted to remind everyone how wonderful the vaccines were, and why he deserves credit, not Biden. This tone-deaf response led to an avalanche of criticism on his own Truth account, and triggered Trump deleting the statement. But it reflected a stubborn unwillingness to acknowledge he got taken for a ride by Big Pharma and it’s institutional allies in 2020 to the detriment of his own Presidential legacy and his core constituency.
It reflected a trend. Trump remains mute on Julian Assange, who his own administration secretly coordinated the imprisonment of. Trump remains silent on Edward Snowden, whose disclosures first outed the great dangers of the Obama administration’s weaponization of the intelligence community ultimately turned on Trump. Trump failed to comment on Amos Miller, when his own Department of Agriculture under Dumber Boss Hogg Sonny Perdue instigated the harassment of. Trump skipped support for Brook Jackson, whose case his own DOJ slow rolled to keep secret the Pfizer fraud of the Covid vaccine he just again celebrated.
Trump promised to hire the best and drain the swamp. Instead, he hired the Swamp. Barr’s own DOJ sabotaged his 2020 campaign. Rosenstein greenlit the Mueller onslaught. Pompeo promoted the Deep State at State. Bolton killed the North Korea nuke deal. His own generals sabotaged withdrawal from Syria. RussiaGate, and Ukrainegate, led from within his own administration, derailed détente with Russia. Elliott Abrams continued foolish coups in Venezuela. Miley almost induced war with Iran. Pence made his 2020 challenge DOA.
The administrative state remains fully intact at the end of his term, and used his power to make sure his reelection was doomed. Trump recently endorsed a host of establishment and deep state candidates over populist challengers, while considering corporatist Noem and war whore Tim Scott for the Vice-Presidency, a Deep State death invite for Trump, while employing critical campaign aides deeply embedded within the establishment.
Trump’s vulnerability – aside from the weak side of his instinctual refusal to admit error, a stubbornness that can come in handy when refusing to change many of his populist policy preferences from elite critiques – is he tends to see the world from his own horizon. To Trump, the problem with the lawfare is just it’s use against him, not an institutionally ill system of state power that corrupts all it touches and threatens all Americans’ liberty. This failure to appreciate the institutional problems divorces him from the true source of the lawfare against him, as well as the solutions essential to a successful second term for himself and the country. Institutional problem require institutional solutions, not individual ones.
This is why Trump’s next big hurdle – as he dominated Super Tuesday, ended the nomination early, won SCOTUS blessing of ballot access, and may be on the verge of dismissal or post-election delay of his criminal exposure – will be Trump himself. His best skill set for handling this hurdle is his marketing instincts and competitive impulse: the threat of a Kennedy campaign stealing votes for Trump can be his best incentive to shift toward policy prescriptions that mirror the institutional illnesses infecting our governance. The question is: will he?
Maybe, at most, a week long. He expected an immediate regime change and then surrender.
Remember the Sand People? Those primitive Houthis? The US spent $7 billion bombing the Houthis over about 6-7 weeks and failed to degrade the Houthis’ ability to attack with missiles.
The problem with Iran is much worse. This week, the US and Israel may burn through the last offensive and defensive munitions, including interceptors. Will Iran surrender at that point, or escalate with their larger arsenal of missiles?
If you are not praying for Pete Hegseth, you should be.
In the Iran war, expert estimates point to America's high-intensity operations being sustainable for roughly a week total (so potentially another 3–5 days from early March 2.
Multiple outlets (Bloomberg, Fortune, WSJ, Politico) report that stocks could run dangerously low "within days" if Iran's current barrage intensity continues.
So, in a few days, will America surrender? Or try to negotiate a cease fire? Perhaps a cease fire. But Iran will not give America that chance to re-arm.
What will Iran's BRICS allies counsel Iran to do? What will 56 other Islamic nations counsel Iran to do?
...And Iran still has plenty of missiles and concealed missile launchers. What will be the terms of a US surrender? And what will a defeat in the Iran war do to the Republican party in 2026 and 2028?
"When the U.S. military’s top general laid out the risks to President Trump of launching a major and extended attack on Iran, one of the issues he flagged was America’s stockpile of munitions.
"Now that is being put to the test, as the U.S. races to destroy Iran’s missile and drone force before it runs out of interceptors to fend off Tehran’s retaliation, current and former officials and analysts say."
-- Wall Street Journal
