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by Constitutional attorney Robert Barnes
Trump’s Next Big Hurdle is Himself
Trump’s virtue and vice reflects two sides of the same coin: his stubborn independence from outside voices and abundant self-confidence. On the good side, it makes him immune from elite critics, orthodox thinking, establishment mindset, and institutional narratives. On the difficult side, it makes him unlikely to acknowledge errors, reverse course when needed, or look beyond his own horizon. A few examples of this.
During his response to the State of the Union, he wanted to remind everyone how wonderful the vaccines were, and why he deserves credit, not Biden. This tone-deaf response led to an avalanche of criticism on his own Truth account, and triggered Trump deleting the statement. But it reflected a stubborn unwillingness to acknowledge he got taken for a ride by Big Pharma and it’s institutional allies in 2020 to the detriment of his own Presidential legacy and his core constituency.
It reflected a trend. Trump remains mute on Julian Assange, who his own administration secretly coordinated the imprisonment of. Trump remains silent on Edward Snowden, whose disclosures first outed the great dangers of the Obama administration’s weaponization of the intelligence community ultimately turned on Trump. Trump failed to comment on Amos Miller, when his own Department of Agriculture under Dumber Boss Hogg Sonny Perdue instigated the harassment of. Trump skipped support for Brook Jackson, whose case his own DOJ slow rolled to keep secret the Pfizer fraud of the Covid vaccine he just again celebrated.
Trump promised to hire the best and drain the swamp. Instead, he hired the Swamp. Barr’s own DOJ sabotaged his 2020 campaign. Rosenstein greenlit the Mueller onslaught. Pompeo promoted the Deep State at State. Bolton killed the North Korea nuke deal. His own generals sabotaged withdrawal from Syria. RussiaGate, and Ukrainegate, led from within his own administration, derailed détente with Russia. Elliott Abrams continued foolish coups in Venezuela. Miley almost induced war with Iran. Pence made his 2020 challenge DOA.
The administrative state remains fully intact at the end of his term, and used his power to make sure his reelection was doomed. Trump recently endorsed a host of establishment and deep state candidates over populist challengers, while considering corporatist Noem and war whore Tim Scott for the Vice-Presidency, a Deep State death invite for Trump, while employing critical campaign aides deeply embedded within the establishment.
Trump’s vulnerability – aside from the weak side of his instinctual refusal to admit error, a stubbornness that can come in handy when refusing to change many of his populist policy preferences from elite critiques – is he tends to see the world from his own horizon. To Trump, the problem with the lawfare is just it’s use against him, not an institutionally ill system of state power that corrupts all it touches and threatens all Americans’ liberty. This failure to appreciate the institutional problems divorces him from the true source of the lawfare against him, as well as the solutions essential to a successful second term for himself and the country. Institutional problem require institutional solutions, not individual ones.
This is why Trump’s next big hurdle – as he dominated Super Tuesday, ended the nomination early, won SCOTUS blessing of ballot access, and may be on the verge of dismissal or post-election delay of his criminal exposure – will be Trump himself. His best skill set for handling this hurdle is his marketing instincts and competitive impulse: the threat of a Kennedy campaign stealing votes for Trump can be his best incentive to shift toward policy prescriptions that mirror the institutional illnesses infecting our governance. The question is: will he?
The Muslims conquered the Iberian peninsula, but as they pushed forward into southern France, their advance was halted at Poitiers by Charles Martel in 745 A.D., thus keeping all of Western Europe except for that Iberian peninsula safe from Muslim conquest. This could, however, not prevent incessant Muslim attacks on coastal villages, especially along the coasts of Italy and France, though such attacks also reached as far as Ireland (the raid on the village of Baltimore in 1631, in which everyone was seized and taken back, as slaves, to Algiers) and, in one famous case, the Muslim corsairs reached as far as Iceland, resulting in the kidnapping and enslavement of the entire population of Grindavik in 1627 by Muslims from Algiers and Salé. The Muslims vandalized and destroyed the Christian villages, and seized their inhabitants, bringing them back to North African shores. The men were used as galley slaves, as laborers on construction sites, and as house slaves, while the women and girls ...
Yes, according to Constitutional scholar Robert Barnes, based on new polling data from his 1776 Law Center.
A week into "the war with no clear strategy or mission," there are still many hopeful, passionate champions of reform and Constitutionalism in the MAGA movement. Not long ago they represented over fifty percent of American voters. But today, the electoral power of the MAGA phenomenon has dropped to thirty percent, and is falling fast toward twenty percent.
Too many voters now feel betrayed by a president infected with hubris. They were led to believe it would be a weekend war. Then a week at most. Then two weeks. Then five weeks. Then the generals said, "At least until September."
What does this mean for the midterms? Mr. Trump has no good ratings, only massive disapproval. His party will lose dominion and influence in Congress. And then his impeachment is on the horizon. Possibly, also, some cabinet members.
Mathematical chances Democrats take the House? They stand today at 75%
The Senate? 85%
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