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General Dwight Eisenhower on learning of the planned bombings: “I had been conscious of a feeling of depression and voiced to [Secretary of War Stimson] my grave misgivings, first on the basis of my belief that Japan was already defeated and that dropping the bomb was completely unnecessary, and secondly because I thought that our country should avoid shocking world opinion by the use of a weapon whose employment was, I thought, no longer mandatory as a measure to save American lives. It was my belief that Japan was, at that very moment, seeking some way to surrender with a minimum loss of ‘face’.”
Admiral William Leahy, Truman's Chief of Staff: “The use of this barbarous weapon…was of no material assistance in our war against Japan. The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender because of the effective sea blockade and the successful bombing with conventional weapons.”
Major General Curtis LeMay, 21st Bomber Command: “The war would have been over in two weeks without the Russians entering and without the atomic bomb…The atomic bomb had nothing to do with the end of the war at all.”
General Hap Arnold, US Army Air Forces: “The Japanese position was hopeless even before the first atomic bomb fell, because the Japanese had lost control of their own air.” “It always appeared to us that, atomic bomb or no atomic bomb, the Japanese were already on the verge of collapse.”
Ralph Bard, Under Secretary of the Navy: “The Japanese were ready for peace, and they already had approached the Russians and the Swiss…In my opinion, the Japanese war was really won before we ever used the atom bomb.”
Brigadier General Carter Clarke, military intelligence officer who prepared summaries of intercepted cables for Truman: “When we didn’t need to do it, and we knew we didn’t need to do it…we used [Hiroshima and Nagasaki] as an experiment for two atomic bombs. Many other high-level military officers concurred.”
Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz, Pacific Fleet commander: “The use of atomic bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan. The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender.”
“I write books to educate myself"
Paul Johnson (1928–2023), the British historian and author, wrote more than 50 books over his lifetime.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297.1.0.pdf
Mishandling national defense information. Very serious.
There are three ways the outlook could play out.
1. The polls and analysts are largely accurate.
a. House: 233 D - 202 R; Senate: 52 D - 48 R
b. Recent polling errors have been greater in the presidential elections while midterms - on the whole - have been more accurate (Silver Bulletin). If largely accurate, Democrats would win a majority of similar size to the 2018 and 2006 midterms and gain a narrow Senate majority.
2. The polls and analysts underestimate Republicans by a normal polling error.
a. House: 221 D - 214 R; Senate: 51 R - 49 D
b. Some of the biggest polling errors this century occurred in reliably red states and districts that underestimate Republican support (The Economist). Given where the competitive races are located this year, another underestimation would be enough to keep Republicans in control of the Senate and to have Democratic House margins in the single digits.
3. The polls and analysts underestimate Democrats by a normal polling error.
a. House: 238 D - 197 R;...
