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Is this another demonstration of America's imperial military might? Visual shock and awe? A political flex for Joe Biden?
War involving Islamic theology is no game. Russia has responded by commencing, over the waters of the Black Sea, around-the-clock rotations of MiG-31 interceptors armed with Kinzhal hypersonic anti-ship missiles, whose operational range extends to 2000 km.
Colonel Douglas MacGregor points out that warfare today is nothing like showing off military might prior to WWI or even in the Iraq War:
"The weapons have changed. The arsenal of rockets and missiles in the region is enormous. People are quoting numbers in the realm of a hundred and thirty thousand rockets and missiles from Hezbollah alone. We don’t even need to mention others in the region. That kind of arsenal is enough in and of itself to destroy much of Israel.
"Then you have a problem with Hamas and Hezbollah and the rest of the region, and that is the rest of the region is as sick of Israel as much of the world and Europe is sick of us. And what I mean by that is that we are on the threshold of total war.
"That's what no one seems to understand. If the Israelis march into Gaza—which I think would be a very unrewarding exercise for them but, nevertheless, they seem determined to do it—they will not only lose soldiers, they will fail to root out the thousands of Hamas fighters that are there. They'll get some, but they won't get them all. They will not improve their position at all with the people of Hamas or the people living on the so -called West Bank. And the rest of the region is prepared to go to war. Stop and think about it. It’s not just Iran. In fact, Iran has militias that can attack us and anyone who works with us in Iraq and Syria. That’s one part of the problem. The Iranians are not going to try to lob theater ballistic missiles at Israel because the Israelis have said they would use a nuclear weapon, but Turkey is different. And the Turks have an unhappy record with the Israelis.
"Just a few years ago, Turkey tried to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Israelis boarded their ship, killed some of their citizens, and turned back the aid. This kind of thing did not cultivate support and friendliness in Turkey. And remember, Mr. Erdogan is the de facto leading military power in the Sunni Muslim world.
"Finally, you have the Pakistanis who are very close to the Turks and have made it abundantly clear that the Turks will receive nuclear warheads and other capabilities from them if they need them in order to deter the Israelis from using a nuclear weapon."
"And finally, the Turks have the largest air forces and armies in the region. The Turks can put two million men in the field in the space of a little over a month. And the Turks are ferocious fighters.
"Now, all of this spells doom for the Israelis if they launch this attack on Gaza. What I just described is an unwinnable fight. Even the air power from the United States that we could commit is not going to be enough."
Map: relative range of new missile ordnance
Sloths move at the speed of congressional debate but with greater deliberation and less noise.
PJ O'Rourke
History suggests governments eventually resolve prolonged chaos the old-fashioned way: war. Whether that’s in Eastern Europe, Asia, or somewhere else, the risk is rising. For now, all we can do as individuals is insulate ourselves—financially and geographically—from, as Doug puts it, “the elephants trampling the grass.”
I’m glad to be in Uruguay. Doug Casey’s glad to be in Argentina. Here, the pace is slower, the politics are less theatrical, and the news cycle doesn’t try to kill you before breakfast.
But the U.S.? The republic is gone. The empire is in the open. And under Trump 2.0, chaos isn’t a bug in the system—it’s the system.
Matt Smith
