We explore real-life reformation here in this informed, online community.
Data beyond "two standard deviations away from the mean" is considered very highly unusual data.
Why did thousands of healthy employees start dying when the vaccines were rolled out?
Former Blackrock Investment Advisor Ed Dowd and Insurance Analyst Josh Stirling discuss the raw data behind the excess deaths insurance companies are experiencing among their policy holders.
"In 2021, in ages 25-64, the employed people [in the US] covered under Group Life [insurance] experienced a 40% excess mortality. As quoted by the CEO of an insurance company, just a 10% increase in excess mortality is a "once in a 200-yr flood" so 40% is off the charts."
-Ed Dowd, former Blackrock Investment Advisor
“I write books to educate myself"
Paul Johnson (1928–2023), the British historian and author, wrote more than 50 books over his lifetime.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297.1.0.pdf
Mishandling national defense information. Very serious.
There are three ways the outlook could play out.
1. The polls and analysts are largely accurate.
a. House: 233 D - 202 R; Senate: 52 D - 48 R
b. Recent polling errors have been greater in the presidential elections while midterms - on the whole - have been more accurate (Silver Bulletin). If largely accurate, Democrats would win a majority of similar size to the 2018 and 2006 midterms and gain a narrow Senate majority.
2. The polls and analysts underestimate Republicans by a normal polling error.
a. House: 221 D - 214 R; Senate: 51 R - 49 D
b. Some of the biggest polling errors this century occurred in reliably red states and districts that underestimate Republican support (The Economist). Given where the competitive races are located this year, another underestimation would be enough to keep Republicans in control of the Senate and to have Democratic House margins in the single digits.
3. The polls and analysts underestimate Democrats by a normal polling error.
a. House: 238 D - 197 R;...
